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人工智能 3

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Understanding the demand predictability of bike share systems: A station-level analysis

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 551-565 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0279-8

摘要： Predicting demand for bike share systems (BSSs) is critical for both the management of an existing BSS and the planning for a new BSS. While researchers have mainly focused on improving prediction accuracy and analysing demand-influencing factors, there are few studies examining the inherent randomness of stations’ observed demands and to what degree the demands at individual stations are predictable. Using Divvy bike-share one-year data from Chicago, USA, we measured demand entropy and quantified the station-level predictability. Additionally, to verify that these predictability measures could represent the performance of prediction models, we implemented two commonly used demand prediction models to compare the empirical prediction accuracy with the calculated entropy and predictability. Furthermore, we explored how city- and system-specific temporally-constant features would impact entropy and predictability to inform estimating these measures when historical demand data are unavailable. Our results show that entropy of demands across stations is polarized as some stations exhibit high uncertainty (a low entropy of 0.65) and others have almost no check-out demand uncertainty (a high entropy of around 1.0). We also validated that the entropy and predictability are a priori model-free indicators for prediction error, given a sequence of bike usage demands. Lastly, we identified that key factors contributing to station-level entropy and predictability include per capita income, spatial eccentricity, and the number of parking lots near the station. Findings from this study provide more fundamental understanding of BSS demand prediction, which can help decision makers and system operators anticipate diverse station-level prediction errors from their prediction models both for existing stations and for new ones.

关键词： bike share systems demand prediction prediction errors machine learning entropy

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我国主要农产品供需分析与预测

刘洋, 罗其友, 周振亚, 尤飞, 高明杰, 唐曲

《中国工程科学》 2018年第20卷第5期页码 120-127 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.05.018

摘要：

粮食安全始终是关系国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的全局性重大战略问题。弄清食物安全保障程度、科学测算未来国家食物需求量是制定保障食物安全政策的基础性工作。2015 年，我国水稻和小麦供需基本平衡，玉米供大于求，大豆严重依赖进口；棉油糖对外依存度较大，其中食用植物油自给率只有36.9%，棉花87.7%，食糖74.4%；畜禽产品供需基本平衡，奶类需要品种调剂。

关键词：农产品供需需求预测食物安全

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Water quality prediction of copper-molybdenum mining-beneficiation wastewater based on the PSO-SVR model

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第17卷第8期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1698-9

摘要：

● Data acquisition and pre-processing for wastewater treatment were summarized.

关键词： Chemical oxygen demand Mining-beneficiation wastewater treatment Particle swarm optimization Support vector regression Artificial neural network

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Allocation of grassland, livestock and arable based on the spatial and temporal analysis for food demand

Huilong LIN, Ruichao LI, Yifan LIU, Jingrong ZHANG, Jizhou REN

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2017年第4卷第1期页码 69-80 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2017140

摘要： To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current (1998–2012) per-capita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products, and predicted the food demand in 2020. The results indicated that in 1998–2012, the national per-capita consumption of grain ration declined by about 36.66%, and the per-capita consumption of grain-consu-ming and herbivorous livestock products increased by about 48% and 34.09%, respectively. The grain-consu-ming livestock products have become the primary source of both calories and protein for consumers. The proportion of herbivorous livestock products in consumer diets has increased steadily and there has been huge potential in substituting beef and mutton for pork in this dynamic market. The demand for food in different provinces of China is highly variable, which is important for planning grassland agriculture development and ensuring food safety. The demand for grain, and grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products will increase by about 3.3%, 20% and 14% respectively by 2020. Based on the food demand and trend in the development of grassland agriculture, the 31 provinces in China are divided into three priority groups for grassland agriculture development.

关键词： arable land equivalent unit (ALEU) food equivalent unit (FEU) food security grassland agriculture time trend prediction

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中国大陆可能的膳食消费水平与粮食需求量——基于中国台湾的历程判断

辛良杰

《中国工程科学》 2018年第20卷第5期页码 135-141 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.05.020

摘要：

中国台湾居民的食物消费演变对中国大陆具有较好的借鉴价值。根据中国台湾的发展情况，中国大陆居民的膳食消费总量可能会在2026 年左右达到峰值状态，水果、肉类、蛋类、水产品、乳类、油脂等高附加值食品的消费量也相应达到峰值，人均膳食消费总量与粮食消费量可分别达到563 kg 与456 kg；到2035 年膳食消费结构达到基本稳定状态，人均膳食消费总量与粮食消费量可分别达到499 kg 与412 kg。由此可知，中国大陆居民的膳食消费还有较大的提升潜力，对中国有限的水土资源还将产生较长时间的持续压力。

关键词：中国台湾中国大陆膳食消费粮食需求量

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Optimal locations of monitoring stations in water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns: a flaw of demand coverage method and modification

Shuming LIU, Wenjun LIU, Jinduan CHEN, Qi WANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2012年第6卷第2期页码 204-212 doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0364-9

摘要： A flaw of demand coverage method in solving optimal monitoring stations problem under multiple demand patterns was identified in this paper. In the demand coverage method, the demand coverage of each set of monitoring stations is calculated by accumulating their demand coverage under each demand pattern, and the impact of temporal distribution between different time periods or demand patterns is ignored. This could lead to miscalculation of the optimal locations of the monitoring stations. To overcome this flaw, this paper presents a Demand Coverage Index (DCI) based method. The optimization considers extended period unsteady hydraulics due to the change of nodal demands with time. The method is cast in a genetic algorithm framework for integration with Environmental Protection Agency Net (EPANET) and is demonstrated through example applications. Results show that the set of optimal locations of monitoring stations obtained using the DCI method can represent the water quality of water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns better than the one obtained using previous methods.

关键词： demand coverage monitoring optimization water distribution network water quality

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Electricity demand, GDP and employment: evidence from Italy

Cosimo MAGAZZINO

《能源前沿（英文）》 2014年第8卷第1期页码 31-40 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0296-8

摘要： This paper applies time series methodologies to examine the causal relationship among electricity demand, real per capita GDP and total labor force for Italy from 1970 to 2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is reported, before discussing the data and introducing the econometric techniques used. The results of estimation indicate that one cointegrating relationship exists among these variables. This equilibrium relation implies that, in the long-run, GDP and labor force are correlated negatively, as well as GDP and electricity. Moreover, there is a bi-directional Granger causality flow between real per capita GDP and electricity demand; while labor force does not Granger-cause neither real per capita GDP nor electricity demand. This implies that electricity demand and economic growth are jointly determined at the same time for the Italian case. The forecast error variance decomposition shows that forecast errors in real per capita GDP are mainly caused by the uncertainty in GDP itself, while forecast errors in labor force are mainly resulted from the labor force itself, although aggregate income and electricity are important, too.

关键词： energy policies electricity demand GDP labor force stationarity structural breaks cointegration causality Italy

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Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO

Jihong ZHANG, Jian ZHOU, Guangping HU, Tianhou ZHANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2010年第4卷第4期页码 459-468 doi: 10.1007/s11708-010-0119-5

摘要： An assessment of the energy demand and the potential for sector-based emission reductions will provide necessary background information for policy makers. In this paper, Beijing was selected as a special case for analysis in order to assess the energy demand and potential of CO abatement in the urban transport system of China. A mathematical model was developed to generate three scenarios for the urban transport system of Beijing from 2010 to 2030. The best pattern was identified by comparing the three different scenarios and assessing their urban traffic patterns through cost information. Results show that in the high motorization-oriented pattern scenario, total energy demand is about 13.94% higher, and the average CO abatement per year is 3.38 million tons less than in the reference scenario. On the other hand, in the bus and rail transit-oriented scenario, total energy demand is about 11.57% less, and the average CO abatement is 2.8 million tons more than in the reference scenario. Thus, Beijing cannot and should not follow the American pattern of high motorization-oriented transport system but learn from the experience of developed cities of Europe and East Asia.

关键词： scenario analysis urban traffic pattern energy demand reduction potential

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Smart residential energy management system for demand response in buildings with energy storage devices

S. L. ARUN, M. P. SELVAN

《能源前沿（英文）》 2019年第13卷第4期页码 715-730 doi: 10.1007/s11708-018-0538-2

摘要： In the present scenario, the utilities are focusing on smart grid technologies to achieve reliable and profitable grid operation. Demand side management (DSM) is one of such smart grid technologies which motivate end users to actively participate in the electricity market by providing incentives. Consumers are expected to respond (demand response (DR)) in various ways to attain these benefits. Nowadays, residential consumers are interested in energy storage devices such as battery to reduce power consumption from the utility during peak intervals. In this paper, the use of a smart residential energy management system (SREMS) is demonstrated at the consumer premise to reduce the total electricity bill by optimally time scheduling the operation of household appliances. Further, the SREMS effectively utilizes the battery by scheduling the mode of operation of the battery (charging/floating/discharging) and the amount of power exchange from the battery while considering the variations in consumer demand and utility parameters such as electricity price and consumer consumption limit (CCL). The SREMS framework is implemented in Matlab and the case study results show significant yields for the end user.

关键词： smart grid demand side management (DSM) demand response (DR) smart building smart appliances energy storage

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Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand of Beijing municipality in China

Shouke WEI, Shafi Noor ISLAM, Alin LEI,

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2010年第4卷第1期页码 91-101 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0007-6

摘要： Statistic and econometric regression models were established in this study to analyze and predict industrial water demand, water deficits, and their future uncertainty in Beijing—a Chinese city with a severe water stress problem. A forecasting model was selected based on a modeling evaluation by comparing predictions with observations. Four scenarios were designed to simulate and analyze the future uncertainty of industrial water demand and the water deficit of Beijing. The modeling results for industrial water demand suggested that Beijing industry would face a water deficit between 3.06 × 10 min 2008 and 2.77 × 10 m in 2015, though its industrial water demand would decrease from 6.31× 10 m to 4.84 × 10 m during this period of time. Results from simulated scenario illustrated that, due to the extreme water scarcity situation, industry in Beijing would still face a serious water deficit problem even with a very optimistic scenario for the future.

关键词： water scarcity water demand water deficit modeling industry scenario Beijing

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Applications of thermostatically controlled loads for demand response with the proliferation of variable

Meng SONG, Wei SUN

《能源前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第1期页码 64-73 doi: 10.1007/s11708-021-0732-5

摘要： More flexibility is desirable with the proliferation of variable renewable resources for balancing supply and demand in power systems. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) attract tremendous attentions because of their specific thermal inertia capability in demand response (DR) programs. To effectively manage numerous and distributed TCLs, intermediate coordinators, e.g., aggregators, as a bridge between end users and dispatch operators are required to model and control TCLs for serving the grid. Specifically, intermediate coordinators get the access to fundamental models and response modes of TCLs, make control strategies, and distribute control signals to TCLs according the requirements of dispatch operators. On the other hand, intermediate coordinators also provide dispatch models that characterize the external characteristics of TCLs to dispatch operators for scheduling different resources. In this paper, the bottom-up key technologies of TCLs in DR programs based on the current research have been reviewed and compared, including fundamental models, response modes, control strategies, dispatch models and dispatch strategies of TCLs, as well as challenges and opportunities in future work.

关键词： thermostatically controlled load demand response renewable energy power system operation

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Understanding network travel time reliability with on-demand ride service data

Xiqun (Michael) CHEN, Xiaowei CHEN, Hongyu ZHENG, Chuqiao CHEN

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2017年第4卷第4期页码 388-398 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2017046

摘要： Travel time reliability is of increasing importance for travelers, shippers, and transportation managers because traffic congestion has become worse in major urban areas in recent years. To better evaluate the urban network-wide travel time reliability, five indices based on the emerging on-demand ride service data are proposed: network free flow time rate (NFFTR), network travel time rate (NTTR), network planning time rate (NPTR), network buffer time rate (NBTR), and network buffer time rate index (NBTRI). These indices take into account the probability distribution of the travel time rate (i.e., travel time spent for the unit distance, in min/km) of each origin-destination (OD) pair in the road network. We use real-world data extracted from DiDi-Chuxing, which is the largest on-demand ride service platform in China. For demonstrative purposes, the network-wide travel time reliability of Beijing is analyzed in detail from two dimensions of time and space. The results show that the road network is more unreliable in AM/PM peaks than other time periods, and the most reliable time period is the early morning. Additionally, we can find that the central region is more unreliable than other regions of the city based on the spatial analysis results. The proposed network travel time reliability indices provide insights for the comprehensive evaluation of the road network traffic dynamics and day-to-day travel time variations.

关键词： network travel time reliability on-demand ride services travel time rate OD

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Cutting CO emissions through demand side regulation: Implications from multi-regional input–output linear

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 452-461 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0209-1

摘要： This study combines multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model with linear programming (LP) model to explore economic structure adjustment strategies for the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. A particular feature of this study is the identification of the optimal regulation sequence of final products in various regions to reduce CO₂ emissions with the minimum loss in gross domestic product (GDP). By using China’s MRIO tables 2017 with 28 regions and 42 economic sectors, results show that reduction in final demand leads to simultaneous reductions in GDP and CO₂ emissions. Nevertheless, certain demand side regulation strategy can be adopted to lower CO₂ emissions at the smallest loss of economic growth. Several key final products, such as metallurgy, nonmetal, metal, and chemical products, should first be regulated to reduce CO₂ emissions at the minimum loss in GDP. Most of these key products concentrate in the coastal developed regions in China. The proposed MRIO–LP model considers the inter-relationship among various sectors and regions, and can aid policy makers in designing effective policy for industrial structure adjustment at the regional level to achieve the national environmental and economic targets.

关键词： CO₂ emissions demand side regulation multi-regional input–output model linear programming model

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Bioorthogonal chemistry based on-demand drug delivery system in cancer therapy

《化学科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第17卷第4期页码 483-489 doi: 10.1007/s11705-022-2227-2

摘要： Benefiting from the advantage of taking place in biological environments without interfering with an innate biochemical process, the bioorthogonal reaction that commonly contains the “bond formation” and “bond cleavage” system has been widely used in targeted therapy for a variety of tumors. Herein, several prominent cases based on the bioorthogonal reaction that tailoring the metabolic glycoengineering tactics to modified cells for cancer immunotherapy, and the innovative tactics for reducing the metal ions’ toxic and side effects with microneedle patches will be highlighted. Based on these applications, the complexities, potential pitfalls, and opportunities of bioorthogonal chemistry in future cancer therapy will be evaluated.

关键词： bioorthogonal reaction cancer therapy metabolic glycoengineering bioorthogonal catalytic patch

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我国饲（草）料供求及未来需求预测和对策研究

刘爱民, 贾盼娜, 王立新, 吴良杰

《中国工程科学》 2018年第20卷第5期页码 39-44 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.05.006

摘要：

随着我国居民生活水平的提高，人们对国内肉、禽、蛋、奶等畜禽产品消费量及生产量的持续增加，国内饲（草）料的需求也将不断增长。本文在对我国饲（草）料供求变化分析的基础上，依据未来国内畜禽产品需求量的变化，对饲（草）料需求进行了预测。研究结果表明，未来我国饲草料供需缺口仍将扩大，为保障国内饲（草）料供给的安全，应适度扩大青贮玉米的种植，发展农区草业；充分合理利用农业资源，适度增加大豆、油菜籽等作物种植，增加国内粕类的有效供给；同时充分合理利用海外农业资源，保障国内饲（草）料供给安全。

关键词：饲（草）料供需预测对策

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标题作者时间类型操作

Understanding the demand predictability of bike share systems: A station-level analysis

期刊论文

我国主要农产品供需分析与预测

刘洋, 罗其友, 周振亚, 尤飞, 高明杰, 唐曲

期刊论文

Water quality prediction of copper-molybdenum mining-beneficiation wastewater based on the PSO-SVR model

期刊论文

Allocation of grassland, livestock and arable based on the spatial and temporal analysis for food demand

Huilong LIN, Ruichao LI, Yifan LIU, Jingrong ZHANG, Jizhou REN

期刊论文

中国大陆可能的膳食消费水平与粮食需求量——基于中国台湾的历程判断

辛良杰

期刊论文

Optimal locations of monitoring stations in water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns: a flaw of demand coverage method and modification

Shuming LIU, Wenjun LIU, Jinduan CHEN, Qi WANG

期刊论文

Electricity demand, GDP and employment: evidence from Italy

Cosimo MAGAZZINO

期刊论文

Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO

Jihong ZHANG, Jian ZHOU, Guangping HU, Tianhou ZHANG

期刊论文

Smart residential energy management system for demand response in buildings with energy storage devices

S. L. ARUN, M. P. SELVAN

期刊论文

Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand of Beijing municipality in China